AUD is a weak currency that has been hammered in 2013.
I am bearish on JPY , and hence AUDJPY will not be my choice as optimum is to buy strong sell weak pairs.
However should AUD start to bottom and strengthen, then AUDJPY will be the JPy cross with most potential to move up.
From the big picture AUDJPY Monthly , price found support and bounced up. I have used the multi year high line chart as support for the commencement of this 3 months strong upflow.
From D1 chart, price has completed a wash & rinse of mulit weeks low. It is now threatening to break the ED channel and if so, will see the end of consolidation.
However, as there is a cluster of line chart resistance, I will wait for price to close above to look for a long trade.
this losing trade is about not following trade plan. The initial plan was to wait till price close above d1 line chart to go long, however i longed when i saw a gap being closed on the h4. Although big picture analysis of the big bullish flag is correct, the timing is wrong.
I can only take consolation in that the resistance levels I have drawn are pretty good as on hindsight can take price has been halted at that level.
However , it is of no use when I do not execute trades according to my trade plan.
Almost 1 yr on,
I believed I had adhered to the idea of following momentum on this trade, just that the timing was off.