( +34 , +4 , +10 ) week17 AUDSGD WR2B CTT triggered with 4 day WR bull trap , tx 1234 present

w1

The ihs which propelled price upwards have now almost reached the full height of itself.
Nearing some w1 + march high, 2 w1 shooting star are now registered.
Clearly price is uptrend but it seems ripe for a CTT move.

week17 w1 AUDSGD reaching height of  ihs 190414

d1

On daily, a WR2B have been completed since last wed but thursday saw the close below of a 2 weeks trendline that has been holding price up.
This comes with a recent flush of 4 day high.
Price do seem a bit overextended and hence will look for a retracement to go short on Monday.
Will be looking for a quick TP possibly 40-50 pips

week17 AUDSGD D1 Wr2B CTT 190414

updated 230414

week17 AUDSGD h4 price respected w1 level 230414

not able to trade this. but price clearly respected the w1 resistance that was pre- identified. Very happy to see that levels identified are clearly working.
Perhaps next time will look to trade even on very strong h4 close.

Next course of action is to see how day close and perhaps a thursday entry is possible.
this is still a counter trend though.

updated 240414 1526

positions all filled with a flat tx 1234.
This is not graded A trade but I have decided to enter a bigger position reserved for A trade.

1)The reason is because i am able to quantify risk to about ~20 pips.
resistance is defined @ d1 downflow fib6.

2)This seem to concur with tx print of 1234 blue box.
From past observation, this type of tx pattern has a very high probability of reaching pt1.
Whether it breaks pt1, is another story. In this aspect, it will mean a very high chance of securing at least 30 pips.
Therefore it is only an issue of much position that i am able to load onto this short.

3) Price also seem to be resisted by a large orange box. I have therefore placed a hard stop above a 2 day high, in which I can see a box-ed in situation until the false move up and down.

4) I am counting on this false break, manifested as a 2-day bearish engulfing candlesticks halted @ a w1 52 weeks high level. It was not post- candle but pre-candle formation drawn. Therefore I have conviction that price has indeed met THE high.

week17 AUDSGD h1 tx 1234 bb 240414

Checklist

Criteria wise, did not score high on the checklist. But something within me kept calling for this trade to be taken n to go big on it.
I will thus take the risk responsibly and go bigger position but minimizing risk with smaller pip risk.

week17 AUDSGD checklist a trade 240414

updated 260414

decided to TP with +32 + 4 + 10 since price seemed to have issues touching my set TP.
I usually would not have this type of jittery but as this was a trade which I have decided to upsize aggressively, I thought it would be better to exit by registering as win instead of a loss.

Note that identified resistance still hold but it was a small upflow that made me decide to modify my set TP. Indeed, price bounced up at the next few hours which likely may have took out my break even price.

week17 AUDSGD trade outcome big pos +32 + 4 + 10 260414

I am happy with this trade outcome, knowing that I have the ability to identify realistic n strong levels, and amplifying my skill set with larger positions. I look forward to even bigger positions and larger registration of pips wins, by waiting for the right setup and timing.

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