very nice big picture setup on this timeframe.
a confluence of w1 level= w1 downflow fib7 @ 1.0369
there is also a tx BB at this area and for larger TX and from past observation it is highly accurate.Only that the exact timing of when price will turn from BB is not known.
It also happen to be at the top of a nicely formed ED channel, so likely it is just a matter of time before price can reverse.
On h4 there seems to be already a flush of 3 weeks high.
However, this does not seem to be the best of flush.
1) Price has not tested the penultimate confluence @ 1.0370
2) no bearish expansion seen yet in all of 4 weeks.
Even though there is a wr3b setup, this is still a counter trend trade. In fact, trying to short this is going against a recent 15 weeks bull run for AUD!
I will be willing to risk bigger positions if
1) price nearer to 1.0370, easier for me to cut
2) price bearish expansion below this wr3b, things are clearer.