week27 a review of wins and losses : adapting triggerpoint to individual needs

Losing trades

week27 Losing trades analysis 050714

In summary,
1)
what I could have done better to avoid the aud losses was to check for news for the thursday. I had been focuses so much on NFP n ECB that day that I had overlooked the AUD news on thursday. The prior bull was still imprinted on my mind, that I had lapsed in grasping the subtle change in dynamics of AUD strength from tues to thurs.

2)On closer scrutiny, I had missed out on the 1 criteria for USDCAD, and thus I could not say i had met all rules to enter this trade. it was a costly one though.

Winning trades

week27 wins analysis 050714

RRR on average will be less than 1:1 . Some winning trades with more than 2:1 listed under A trade have helped to propped the profits up but many have not run the full course of the potential.

Nevertheless, the revised edition of A trade criteria have been proven useful in redefining what is considered A trade. These will form the basis and conviction for future swing trades.
Trades which have space to move, trades which will move immediately on higher probability.
Crux lies in “true direction” and “moveability”.

On the other hand, the unwarranted losses are what I will want to eliminate in week28. Although I have more trades now as a result of improved triggers and LTF setups, I need to refrain entering risk when the setup has not matured yet.

Some pitfalls that I had observed with triggerpoint system:

1) essence of 123 is good, but blindless application may succumb to falsebreak, i.e longing at the high, or short at the low. I have loss a few trade as a result of merely placing stop orders.

compared to 1234, 1234 will have a lower entry price, but lesser guarantee as well.

There is no “right or wrong” or ” who is better” type of dichotomy, but rather,
which is more appropriate at that situation?

Having crystallized my thoughts, I will hv my tentative summary as such:

( using long side as example

1234 retracement:
Pros: earlier retracement at an assumed turn to rejoin trend, reduced pip risk.

Con: however the smaller change in direction is not considered a change until the recent high has been overcome.
this means an earlier risk may be in place before the actual turn has happened.
strictly abiding for a 1234 also points to “expecting” the market to provide a retracement before rejoining the main trend. however market is not obliged to do so and hence strict adherence to rules may not yield some good oppoturnities for trades

123 breakout

Pros: having set a prior bias, trade entry is guaranteed if using stop orders method to gain entry. Since method has breakout essence, from past observation price tends to move faster.

Cons: lesser pip gains. Also if using stop orders , there are times when candles become a pinbar eventually. causing a trade to look stupid . i,e buying at the top.

Several of losing trades have come as a combination of suckers brakout, and more imptly, inaccurate ed channels.

Adaptation

1)Therefore both 1234 and 123 when used in tandem with multi day flat boxes is more likely to allow setups be seens as multi day patterns that can provide a higher winning probability.

2) I am also looking at 1234, when used in the context of multi-day 1234 ed channel after an expansion has a higher chance of movement.

3) for countertrend, 123 with stop orders may be better in that the trade is only in when the price has start to move in our direction.

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