week30 suspicion on AUDUSD potential weakening: an analysis of macd regular and hidden divergence

h1

Based on this chart, it suggested there is a weakening of AUDUSD, with thursday close as slightly bearish. Price is now currently at channel bottom; price seems to fit nicely into the channel.

There are calls by triggerpoint users for short, however I hv my reservations.

1) no macd regular divergence. this has become and important veto factor for me. I am sure there is divergence on the m15, but the move should hv been ended and this m15 divergence shld hv been used last night.
2) looks like hidden divergence instead. on the h1, i will be skeptical to short as

a) current red macd suggest end of the ST movement. to short with “space” it is better to short from the peak of blue, which can be hard to guess,
b) or short when red first appear after it falls below zero.
c) comparing the red macd blob circled in black, I instead chose to see it as hidden divergence for price to go higher.

3) d1 line chart may act as support
tentative conclusion:
AU may see 1 more upmove first to establish the
2nd HH price with LL macd
there is still room for AU to one last WTT trend move up.

week30 AUDUSD h1 suspicion on premature setup 250714

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