( BE x 2 , – 150 x 2 , +70 x 2) week41 waterloo week I: trade review of EURUSD short trades

this week was a bad week in the early week as 3 consecutive winning weeks had let to complacency again and destroyed whatever consistency that was building up.

I will do my trade reviews of several USD related pairs and proceed to discuss if following abandoning limit triggers and stick to strict channel setups may be better for me.

Heart of the problem first lies in being able to identify key SAR or not.

Looking back at week41. Disaster started right from Monday morning when I continued to have the Rambo mentality to keep buying on USD.

I believe having this mindset is good but I also need to be prudent to know that it is always good to trade from retracements. In this aspect, I seemed to have used it well on EURUSD for the past 10+ weeks, and only suffered a waterloo on week 41.

week41 EURUSD h4t 111014

every week i see higher low but this week things did not turn out as expect from the past 5 to 6 weeks.

Suffered losses as shown:

Early week entries were based on the assumption that week to week will be lower and turn around f5 or f6. Things did not work as planned.
Some positions cut losses at higher price where it soon turned.
Made to look like a fool with the classic pump and dump.

On analysis. Was the macd divergene a good one for the first channel?
Was there a channel at all?
Should i have followed the channel?

week41 EURUSD trade outcome 111014

2nd trade on short at friday was much better when the channel shown was one which touched the R of 52weeks level and on closer scrutincy price did not close above the 52 weeks level at all! That was a sign that perhaps the game was still on.

EURUSD h1 1234 macd divergence

week41 EURUSD h1 1234 macd divergence 101014

tracking with tradingview


The debate:

Hence will waiting for channel ONLY to trade yield better results??
Will it protect me from future potential losses?

I believe h1 channel play is the way to go for me. Patience, and hitting big on a consistent good channel setup maybe much better than hitting random entries.

But the complexities lie in ascertaining when the channel has ended.
I am currently in the process of batching my positions when nearing the end of the channel. It is not easy and as of now I cant put a definite yes/no type of rule into it.

The part on determining SL is still being worked on. It is hard to concertize how i want to place my SL as every trade setup is similar yet they are different as well. Sometimes putting a hard stop is good, but sometimes it is dumb as SL may get killed by volatility instead.

edited 251214

After reading through this post again,the f6 entry which I made was untested against any key levels.
With the advent of MY Levels, I should not be committing this type of mistakes in 2015.


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