week44 Initial theory on the tripartite view for trading success. GBPNZD – 100 , AUDJPY – 70, CADSGD -50

More evolution of theories as weeks goes by.

In week44, I proceed to evolve from the tandem of market direction + market timing to

to the tripartite component Trend ( big picuture) , momentum( market timing) timing ( redefined as “perceived” high/low) to ensure minimum pip risk.

In review the losing trades, I have thus come to conclusion how in instances of right trend, right momentum but yet I still could get stopped out, and hence missed out on a subsequent huge move.

No.1 ? Trend Right momentum wrong timing

AUDJPY h1

Despite a very nice upward momentum, I still tripped up when I decided to join in the bullish bandwagon without waiting for a retracement towards trusted d1 line chart support. IF, price should drop, then I will get caught in the retracement. In this case, I got stopped out by respecting my SL but also because

1) of my rash entry early on to enter on h1 spike up, which did not materialize

2) I set my SL NOT with respect to d1 line chart SAR

Timing as can be seen, will hence place pirority on my tripartite.

week44 AUDJPY h1 right momentum wrong timing -70 021114

No.2 Right Trend Right momentum wrong timing

GBPNZD -100

The haste and the anxiety to get in, will result in entries with inferior positions. As shown in the chart, the way to go , is to get in on LONG on PERCEIVED LOW , SHORT on PERCEIVED HIGH.

I did not do this in GBPNZD, and hence I had to suffer retracement of unknown magnitude at that point of time.
Had I long , 8-10 hours later, I will be up +100 instead of -100.

Be patient, for the market always revisits the best price.

week44 GBPNZD h1 example of right trend right momentum wrong timing -100 021114

No.3 Right trend , right momentum, right timing

H4T down ,
moementum day to day is down.
Timing used channel macd.

Result is highest probability win.

week41 NZDCAD H4T 081014

week41 NZDCAD H4T 081014

No.4 ? Trend , right momentum, right timing

H4 : trend maybe not clear

Momentum clear: 7-10 days of uptrend with 1-2 days of bullish expansion.

Timing needs to be good with trusted d1 SAR

Still considered high probability

week44 EURJPY h1 did not trade but saw the exact entry with galvanized understanding of d1 line chart 311014

Summary

I am evolving in terms of my thoughts. I am now fine tuning trend,momentum,timing not in terms of hierarchical importance, but I will say they in sum determine how i should set out to structure a trade with superior RRR , high accuracy , best possible duration to my best.

I am also paying more respect towards structuring effective SLs. Contain risk, with open upside.

That however, I must say , with right timing and right momentum most of the time, still offer immediate movemment n respectable pips of 50-110.
Trend however, will be akin to overlord which determines the amount of meat that can be captured.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s