(updated week21) week20 EURUSD is still a down, currently awaiting the completion of a head and shoulders formation.

week20 EURUSD monthly wr2d1b bulltrap 110515

Monthly chart

On the month chart , last month was a bullish month. However, for the definition of trend reversal to hold true, there needs to be another bullish expansion month before it can be said that this 10 month trend has changed.

however this is not the case yet.

h4

week20 EURUSD h4 WR2D1B with h4 hns macd divergence 110515

on this timeframe, I can see price went above the 2 months high for a few days, before it closed below this level strong.

Pending a strong day close now, I will look to see this as a regret move of eager bulls who chose to buy on a breakout.

From macd divergence, it suggests price may have the potential to top out at around this level.

I am keen for a short, but I want to be prudent as the past 7-10 days had been bullish. I will want to wait for a last retest in the form of a right shoulder before joining in to short.

Will update again.

updated 170515

price did not reach the right shoulder level and showed signs of rejection. Hence this trade was not entered. It was a good case study of staying patient and being prudent in trading.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/GBXjvqsW-EURUSD-still-in-downtrend/

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