week23 The Singapore property price Index : Using Dow Theory to understand property price movement.

This is a very primitive way of price projection.

My beliefs are very rudimentary:

The SIngapore property is a tightly regulated and controlled market, with stable rise over the markets, and hence not likely to see the property bubble being burst. This type of stability is brought by an articifical inducement of gradual rise in price, and then a retracement, before the next wave up.

It bears striking resemblance to the dow theory in which price rises predictably via a zig zag up movement.

The Dow theory

this type of price movement imo, is best for the stability of the country. Singaporeans would not feel squeezed as they continue to feel their assets are growing.

zig zag up

Singapore Housing PPI

bears resemblance in this aspect. The Index becomes predictable, something which everyone wants.

week23 Singapre PPI 300515

Predictability, that is what sound investor wants. Kudos to the government in this aspect by controlling the bulls, giving the uptrend time to expand, retrace, before expanding. This ebb and flow is essential for market to function nornmal.

Do also note that that the rising channel has a very gentle slope, which may bode well as too sleep and uptrend is not good as well.

With a simple trendline drawn, I project the support confluence to be ~2017. Hopefully it gives me some more time to accumulate my cash before purchasing my first property. It could not have come at a better timing.

Conclusion

I am appreciative that there is strict regulation of the local property market. Becuase when market moves up too fast, it will

come down hard as well. The last thing we want is something like a parabolic descent. which can cause irreversible damage:

STI month chart: the quick up in 2007 before the even quicker   collapse

week23 STI month chart 390515

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