h1 pre-RBNZ news
Did not set a buy stop as intended.
Post RBNZ news,
jumped small position to ride on the unstoppable bullish momentum.
reached 52w SAR. Will book my profits.
Will look to long again on the next setup.
GBP Pound crosses could be seeing a strong moves in the near future.
A nicely connected bullflag has not yet broken out , but currently price is at the top, on the verge of breaking out.
Going by personal definition of trend on a week to week (w2w) basis , past 5 weeks have registered higher lows each week. This is advantageous for a swing trader who wishes to earn profits within 1-4 days, since the probability of another upweek is high.
On day to day momentum ( d2d) , tuesday registered a hammer, suggesting that price respected the 52 weeks level. Thereafter a right shoulder was completed, from the line chart version.
That suggested that price is likely to continue from past 5 weeks of trend.
trade outcome +90.
Exited on friday morning after seeing that price was not able to register new highs in the morning. Left pos BE out.
Overall good trade setup, excellment trade management. I may not have gotten the large move correct, but I did well by exiting and managing the risk correctly.
Since reaching 1.400, price did a strong retracement. It is possible that price has now reached the end of the retracement leg, ready to rejoin the longer term uptrend.
D1 chart no.1
Apologies for the messy chart with a cluster of lines. However all these 52weeks level when placed together conveyed a story.
1- 1.400 was the top due to the cluster of 52 weeks level.
2- Price currently finds a support zone, also due to the cluster of 52weeks level + fib 50% retracement.
In particular 2014 High, provides more eivdence that price is ready to bounce from there.
D1 chart no.2
Zooming in, a double bottom seems to have formed, suggesting that this 52 weeks level has been tested twice.
With macd divergence, there is added steel to suggest that price has bottomed out.
Looking at the ed channel, price has also already broken out, with friday’s hammer showing strong respect from 2014 high.
It is thus compelling to believe that this chart is bottoming out. Going into h1, a bullflag of sorts can be seen and entry can be immediate when market opens next week.
I do acknowledge that trading with a small 1234 bullflag is akin to “demanding” that price has to break out of the 3 weeks range. This is an action that may require a larger stop loss in order to prove the setup correct.
However the price action towards the 52weeks level is compelling.
This is the type of good trades that i want to repeat again and again. TP was done at the identified pivot points.
The China ( Shanghai A50) is an index based on A-shares which are companies registered in China.
There have been big stories covered on the revivial of China sotck market earlier this year and since then a strong month to month trend has emerged.
I look to rejoin this smooth trend and look to the usual price pattern of a bullflag for fresh entries.
There were several things which I saw that suggested strong upside move.
All these things put together inspired a lot of confidence in this trade.
I grade this as A trade also because of the way SL can be clearly defined.
The crux will be getting to be filled by a good price.
I do not trade this counter. But my friend’s keen and vested interested in osim has made me start to monitor as well. I will go through the technical aspects first, before moving on to fundamental/sentiment aspects, something is still new and subjective to me.
On the week chart, price reaches a classic resistance turn support of multi 52 weeks level.
On the day chart however price is currently at the bottom of a bullflag. if price can close above 1.70, it will also be flushing a 2 months low, forming a beartrap. This suggests support and validates the 52weeks level as seen in the first chart.
If this bottom is indeed true, then price can look for $2~ level.
This is something new to me. My friend has made the observation that whenever there is a buyback there will be likely a bounce in price. However as a chartist, I seek the possibility if I can align this type of information with technical charts.
In this case if the buyback does really have effects on the price, it has also happened near the bottom of the bullflag as seen in the day chart. Hence I hope to shed more light in the future, combining both aspects to make a better trade decision.
Shorted this when I saw the familiar Resistance tripartite of 2014 low , channel confluence , together with f6.
There was a WR2B which validated a beartrap. And this reversal pivot was even more meaningfully formed with
a yellow purple expansion combination, which suggests the strength of the resistance.
price plunged straight for monday and now at neckline. Which presents the next decision to take some or leave to ride for more.
Indeed price did a drastic turn at the identified partial tp area. I did well to secure the profits.
What gets me excited is when a major consolidation has ended, followed by a strong closure beyond multi 52 weeks level or previous year high. This suggests spaces to exploit.
Current situation is best exemplified by the chart of Straits Times Index.
After the strong bullish week close , it will be to look for signs of support.
With the combination of d2d momentum with w2w uptrend , looking for a multi day bullflag will be right thing to do to join in the big tide.
D1 candlestick charts
Finding the beartrap in the form of hammer will be the ideal scenario. In this case, I have gotten the trigger that I want to see. Overall the trend is up. I will be ready to add more should price drop furthur down.