D1
After RBNZ announcement of rate cut, price completed the head and shoulders in style. I have extensive observations on pivot in d1 line chart for the past 2 years. I notice that price often does a sharp turn from their levels.
I have thus placed a blind sell limit from the 2 x d1 pivot/ neckline / 4weeks low for a play on reactionary spike.
This will be something for week25.
GBPDKK
This is the type of A trade that I need to risk more when this type of oppoturnity arises.
I decreased my position size however as I felt it was overrisking before ECB announcement.
Still doubting over my direction bias and mkt selection. I believe it is time to dispel the lack of faith and hold fast to the H4T trades that I picked.
In fact this pick was so good that it played right into Denmark’s 2nd rate cut and caused the broker to suspend trading, which I was on the right side.
EURGBP
Definitely skills are improving. It is all about holding on to these trades now.
h1
Very pleased with this trade as I had correctly interpreted the trend and momentum. I had read the trend as basing, in accumulation phase. After price closed strongly above 4 weeks high , the retracement formed a bull flag with classic S of f6 n d1 LC.
However it was the manner of taking profit which really galvanized my confidence in my current approach towards market.
I have gotten the trend and momentum right. But what has been the most elusive part, the TIMING, i am slowly finding my way and seeing positive progress.
After FOMC, many trades become clear with strong n decisive movement.
AUDCAD had been trending for a while, and finally cleared 13TL.
D1
Price has retested 13TL and the bounce is shown clearly with a d1 bullish engulfing candlestick.
This was done in the light of yesterday’s bearish expansion below 2 days low. Such a strong reaction warrants immediate attention.
I could also see that price has a sort of inverted head and shoulders forming.
H4
H4 shows another 1234 being completed when the bullish day engulfing closed above 7 days low. There is a 1234 within 1234.
h1
I had missed out the earlier part of day to long this as I was looking at NZDCAD. However intra day price had gone on to form a cup and handle pattern, triangular flag shape pattern which i can only see it as waiting to expand upwards.
On using the monthly fib levels, i see that price has remained above this level, so if shit happens that will be my cut level.
A trade criteria
17 points! GO BIG OR GO HOME! HIT IT!
edited 210614
this turned out to be disastrous, as soon after I entered the big positions, price started dropping. On waking up on friday morning, price had retraced by then and I was seeing sort of a 1234, however there was a gut feel that this was the type of 1234 that would not make it.
AFI
Entry was a bad mistake, but cutting losses short before CAD news was a good choice and certainly protected my capital.
Certainly, A trade criteria needs to be reviewed. It seems that the criteria did not include/ had not placed enough emphasis on aligning the immediate h1 momentum with the big picture.
It is all about the ” h1-ness” if I wish to put in a large position. I want to see trades moving immediately, so I can shift my positions to BE immediately and have a sense of relief!
I am intending to risking it big for this trade. By this, I mean that to trade this trade is good risk, although the risk amt may be big. But as traders, I believe that when the time has come, we must show up and hit the big trades.
There are many trade criteria that has been fulfilled for me:
mn
Monthly chart remains that price is bounded and topping out but I shall not be too concerned with that and to focus on the immediate momentum. The big pt2. are 52 weeks level which has been broken previously and now broken up back to become a support.
D1
A strong 1234 WR pattern has been completed.
The significance of it is that WR8B and BM has been completed from a single bullish expansion day.
h1
Power h1 1234 from this bullish expansion day. There is a smaller bull flag forming up,
with very strong support that i see @ fib5 of this expansion, coming from d1 line chart support/ 52 weeks support h4 box high confluence.
is this A trade criteria?
It is interesting to see that what I believe to be an A+ trade does not score high in my A trade rubrics. Only achieving a score of 9. Fractal patterns and a multi day 1234 setup has not appeared yet. The max potential of point it can score perhaps will be 13-14. For fractal setup to appear, it may take another 6-8 weeks. Then again, NZD bull trade must be taken next week. movement of 50 pips is guaranteed at least, and I must hit my hardest to grab that 50 pips.
Monthly
Big picture shows a descending triangle,
and price now smashed below multi-year support of $3
h4
Boxes easily shown 4 consecutive weeks of lower high
h4
i consider this my A trade as there is a 1234 as well, a 4 day bull trap happened, with pt4 at
ultra resistance. MTF analysis fits in perfectly.
However, not having any experience in copper, i have opted for the smallest pos to trade with
D1
Price indeed was looking for a move towards key support level.
Will be waiting for a smallish chart reversal pattern to go long with the trend.
Also time to look into metals ETF and unit trust.
updated 220314
This was a silly trade
entered on Monday, Fear of losing out, as Friday
BE exited trade after failure to TP at h4 box high.
Did not realized there was bull trap of 2 days high.
Did not cut loss early, as was hoping multi days low can offer support.
One observation abt my trading style is that Monday tend to be a day to observe the market, what is it likely to be up to for the rest of the week.Unless signal are compelling, it is generally better for me to stay out and observe first.
- a journey of investment in SG
Profitable trading on naked charts
Naked Chartist 