week45 EURNZD rights bias and analysis but poor conviction.

I did well to spot the trade opportunity in EURNZD. However I did not have the conviction to follow through.

week45 EURNZD h1 trade outcome analysis right bias poor conviction 091114

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( sell limit placed ) week41 EURJPY start of H4T via multiday 1234

D1

D1 line chart shows EURJPY possibly a bull trap has been formed. Last week was a bearish expansion week that closed below a 6 weeks high. Also, It day closed below 2 x d1 line chart S.

week41 EURJPY D1 wr6b 071014

h1

I will be looking to play off this potential H4T via a multiday 1234 should it WR. The R n fib levels confluences nicely near the top of a projected bear flag and i hv placed sell limits there.

Once WR, I will be looking to add on.

Crucial for this topping out will be to monitor for testing of the d1 line chart on h1. I will also be looking out for some smallish distribution pattern at ard pt4.

week41 EURJPY h1 multiday 1234 071014

( +50 , +40) week41 EURSEK H4R Big Move 1234 WR

w1

week charts show the high of 2013 n 2013 being flushed. A trend continuation might be in place after this flush.

week41 EURSEK w1 WR 2 x 52 weeks high 061014

D1

from D1 chart, a big move below 13 weeks low can be seen and this is registered with a bearish expansion week. Also denoted will be several d1 line chart which acts as a SnR that traps a multi 1234.

week41 EURSEK D1 Big move over 13 weeks 061014

h1

a multi day 1234 can be seen but more importantly the context of it is that this bear flag is stuck within the zone of the d1 SAR line chart. A decisive day close below the Support will also mean the breakage of a large D1 13TL.

Hence I consider this trade to be in line with momentum but attempting a trend reversal as of now.

week41 EURSEK h1 1234 multi day bull trap 061014

Tracking with tradingview

https://www.tradingview.com/v/4EHgwzjm/

Edited 191014

Did well for this trade.
traded the trade setup, and exited before price reversed completely.

week42 EURSEK h1 divergence hns trade outcome 141014

(+30 , +90 , +130 , +130) week38 TP week37 entry EURGBP D1 1234 ed channel with h1 channel setup A trade

Yes! This will be the archtype of setup that I want to trade and be involved in! Trading the big picture with entries like a trader , but holding like an investor. The thinking of this trade would be my attempt in understanding what the Scotland opinion pole would mean when GBP gapped down on Monday. I was given the explanation of FA playing out via this poll. but hey , how can opinion poll be considered the final outcome when the actual voting had not been concluded yet?
Hence I saw this as a chance for price to be pumped up. on the technical charts, it just went to complete a D1 ED channel 1234 pt4. Kind of amazing, but after this episode I have developed a further insights on Fundamental , Technical and Sentimental Analysis.

D1 big picture

It all starts with this big picture view of the trend. Month to month , trend is down, but recent 2 months have seen a ranging condition, until week 37 when the referendum opinion poll pumped up prices to the optimum zone.

week37 EURGBP D1 h4t on month 100914

week37 EURGBP  h1 wr2b 1234 divergence 080914

h1 moveability Fractals concept

by 10th Sept , a channel within channel setup had occurred. I am thus now attempting to trade big pictures by using the concept of fractals.

week37 EURGBP D1 2 x WR2B  with 1234 macd divergence 100914

tracking through tradingview

https://www.tradingview.com/v/KpHVZTge/

trade outcome

week38 EURGBP h1 +30 +70 +130 x 2 210914

( 2 pos in progress) week38 EURSGD H4T 1234 with macd divergence hns rs testing R

D1 big picture

Looking at day chart, EURSGD easily trending for past 10-15 weeks. Shall not try to call a bottom here. Instead , trend, trend ,trend

week38 EURSGD d1 h4t 170914

h1 moveability

there is a 1234 setup already WR 3 days high
f6 of recent downflow
R of d1 line chart , AUG low
Hns forming with right shoulder testing this R confluence
macd divergence,
however within a not so nice of channel.

week38 EURSGD h1 1234 macd divergence 170914

Likely that this can only be conclusive when EUR LTRO n GBP referendum is done.