week23 The Singapore property price Index : Using Dow Theory to understand property price movement.

This is a very primitive way of price projection.

My beliefs are very rudimentary:

The SIngapore property is a tightly regulated and controlled market, with stable rise over the markets, and hence not likely to see the property bubble being burst. This type of stability is brought by an articifical inducement of gradual rise in price, and then a retracement, before the next wave up.

It bears striking resemblance to the dow theory in which price rises predictably via a zig zag up movement.

The Dow theory

this type of price movement imo, is best for the stability of the country. Singaporeans would not feel squeezed as they continue to feel their assets are growing.

zig zag up

Singapore Housing PPI

bears resemblance in this aspect. The Index becomes predictable, something which everyone wants.

week23 Singapre PPI 300515

Predictability, that is what sound investor wants. Kudos to the government in this aspect by controlling the bulls, giving the uptrend time to expand, retrace, before expanding. This ebb and flow is essential for market to function nornmal.

Do also note that that the rising channel has a very gentle slope, which may bode well as too sleep and uptrend is not good as well.

With a simple trendline drawn, I project the support confluence to be ~2017. Hopefully it gives me some more time to accumulate my cash before purchasing my first property. It could not have come at a better timing.

Conclusion

I am appreciative that there is strict regulation of the local property market. Becuase when market moves up too fast, it will

come down hard as well. The last thing we want is something like a parabolic descent. which can cause irreversible damage:

STI month chart: the quick up in 2007 before the even quicker   collapse

week23 STI month chart 390515

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( tp +200) week22 Wheat h4 shorting from the top

D1

Price contained nicely within this bearish price channel.

week22 Wheat D1 Ed channel top 260515

h4

Looked into h4 and a double top ( almost) was in the process. My conviction to short was due to previous day of bearish engulfing, that ate up the previous day which was a bullish expansion day. Hence on today’s open I shorted with in mind to put my SL above the Double Top. I did not trade full size as I was conserving that if price should retrace higher I will add more.

week22 Wheat h4 Double Top divergence short 260515

updated 310515

Successfully took profit with the correct identification of this down swing.

What I did right : ED channel and nice observation of pivoting top.

week22 wheat tp 310515

week21 SGX NOL. What are the signs to look out for in a reversal?

Year to year, NOL has been creating lower lows and seems to be going to a point of no return. However recent it sparked an upmove which started to raise some interest.

Monthly

week15 NOL monthly level 160415

on a technical chart basis, a change in the zig zag down has been seen:

D1

week20 NOL D1 linechart 150515

A higher high and higher low has been registered. More significantly several 52weeks levels have been flushed to the upside. The red zig-zag shows a change to the green one, showing a change in bias.

D1

week21 NOL D1 monitoring the confluence 190515

On the daily timeframe, a channel can be observed. Whether this is a rising channel or a larger bear flag, more can be concluded when price reaches the support confluence. A sign of bullish support candle such as hammer will be good.

tbc.

(+120 , +140 , -60) week8 GBPAUD the classic Yong’s edge

Why did I used the title “Classic Edge” even when there was a losing position?

Started the week for GBPAUD with this H4T bullflag, slower entry than the rest of GBP, an hour of the strong GBP news.

week7 EURAUD h1 my mistakes 130215

However by Thursday things started to take a turn when price broke above multiday high but then flushed back to
form a multiday 1234 with macd divergence. Price then continued to complete a bearish day expansion.

week8 GBPAUD h1 standard multiday 1234 with macd divergence 220215

Summary

This week I did not have much of good setups, but this was actually one of the solid ones on hindsight. I have only this to conclude that I should not fcuk around when my edges appear. Rather than choose to adhere to existing direction bias, it is best to be able to switch my inflexible and accept the strength of my ‘classic edge’ when it appears.

week50 ( -60, -130) NZDUSD staying patient is the way to go

h1

In this situation, price had fell for several days but

1) Price is reaching the bottom of a Day channel
2) there is a strong confluence of MY levels.

I have been through this type of situations several times; I had a suspension that price will reverse from around this zone. What will be tricky would be from getting stopped out within the few days leading up to an all important RBNZD news.

As written in the chart will be my proposed way of tackling the situation.

Components to trade the reversal were there, but I need to show more fitnesse by being smarter leading up to the big event.

week50 NZDUSD -40 -70 made a mess let the reversal come to me 131214