( 2 pos in progress) week21 GBPAUD mean reversion hypothesis counter trending the counter trend

After an earlier part of the week in which profits were slashed, I hv returned to this pair.

Currently looking at several criteria which might give GBPAUD a short move down.

Will believe that this is a ” counter-trend of the counter-trend” , so looking to TP fast or shift to break even.

Reasons for taking this trade:

1)overall downtrend, +ve swap trade, willing to hold till fib6

Trend is down but I acknowledge this may not be the move that brings it al down yet

2) w1 res , d1 fib5 , recent d1 high

Strong confluences of resistance.

3) price overextended after rally for 3 days

Playing off an exhaustion of this counter trend bulls. Also banking on mean reversion to bring price back to lower levels for bulls who are still looking to long.

4)TP @ ema touch + d1 line chart support

My TP level will be based on d1 line chart. To complete a D1 1234, price still needs to overcome this level. I will assume at the moment it is not going to break and hence TP at that area. Also touching the base of the EMAs.

week21 GBPAUD mean reversion trade 230514

( +$13 x3 gd and short trade) week20 SNP 500 D1 Wash and Rinse 2 months high and pending WR3B

D1

SnP showed a bull trap with a WR2D1B. Current price is pending WR3B. I have already shorted early and looking for quick TP @ 1867 level.

week20 SNP Wr2D1b wr3b pending 150514

updated 170514

trade outcome +$13 x 3
this is the type of trade that I wish to reproduce. Fast and quick to TP , all done in a matter of few hours. Less time in the market makes me less jittery. It is ok that I could not squeeze out the last $5-7 dollars on the spike, but I shall not be greedy.

week20 SNP h1 trade outcome +13 170514

Overall this is a good trade.

( +40,+50) week18 AUDUSD Wr2B CTT via 1234 2 day WR bull trap

overall, still waiting for AUD to turn strength, and then showhand trade.

But it is not right now.

h4

WR2B CTT has just happened.

week18 AUDUSD Wr2B CTT 280414

h1

h1 shows an orthodox 1234 2 xh1 WR bull trap. Price barely touched blue box on a spike.
On WR, it happened to be at 5 pm. It was instinctive to enter on this trade.
Resistance was defined by recent h4 boxes high and low.
I will be looking to exit on blue box and last h4 box low.

week18 AUDUSD h1 1234 2 xh1 bull trap 280414

updated 290414

feels great when trade move fast and settled within 12 hours. It is still considered counter trend movement so I believed I have done the right thing for quick profit taking @ the last week week low and the final position @ blue box.

I am now ready for a potential rebound from AUD bulls and have planted a sell limit for EURAUD.

week18 AUDUSD h1 trade outcome + 40 +50 290414

( -110, -120) week17 GBPJPY counter trend 5 day bull trap waiting for a good setup

d1

A strong trendline is defending against the bulls, who has strong reasons for upward movement with a 3 month ihs chart pattern. A long time symmetrical chart pattern is indeed compelling reason for perhaps strong continuation of the 2013 trend.

week17 GBPJPY D1 4 day bull trap pending close 230414

h1

but right now trade will be pure counter trend for me. I am in no hurry to short this and will be waiting for a minimum 2 day flush to match up with a 5 day bull trap.
week17 GBPJPY h1 5 day bull trap waiting for good setup 250414

updated 250414 2114 hrs

h4

Did not managed to get in earlier at a suspected 1234; not the best of pattern but now 13TL is completed and a WR2B has been done.
Have to assume that consolidation is completed and now price is ready for a subsequent downmove.

week17 GBPJPY h4 WR2B ctt entry point 250414

Note that space will be limited and hence order for this trade will be quick TP @ about 90-100 pips. I will be happy with that.

A trade checklist

Checklist suggested that trade may not be top grade, based on points. Reduce risk n lot size.

week17 GBPJPY A trade checklist 250414

updated 040514

Question is would I have averted this loss by choosing to tp and run at this bear trap?

What I have did ok to compensate for this late entry will be reduced lot size , so this was the saving grace of this losing trade.

week18 GBPJPY h4 -110, -120 trade outcome 040515

( +110 ) week17 EURAUD counter trend in play ihs towards big neckline

D1

A small but visible ihs can be seen from line chart. Height of head is roughly same as big neckline level in which I intend to look for distinct price action for a showhand A trade

week17 EURAUD D1 small ihs to drive up to neckline retest 230414

h4

I am currently long on counter trend towards this neckline. This position was entered in pain on tuesday when AUDCAD trade was faring badly. Making matters worse, nbox was showing a bearish expansion and during 4M AUD was strongly regarded.

price has now closed above the neckline and if there is retracement I will be looking for an
added entry towards the neckline

week17 EURAUD h4 trade plan for 2nd entry 230414

updated 030514

taken profit with 110 pips