potential channel confluence that has been the cornerstone for my personal rendition of buy low sell high.
After an earlier part of the week in which profits were slashed, I hv returned to this pair.
Currently looking at several criteria which might give GBPAUD a short move down.
Will believe that this is a ” counter-trend of the counter-trend” , so looking to TP fast or shift to break even.
Reasons for taking this trade:
1)overall downtrend, +ve swap trade, willing to hold till fib6
Trend is down but I acknowledge this may not be the move that brings it al down yet
2) w1 res , d1 fib5 , recent d1 high
Strong confluences of resistance.
3) price overextended after rally for 3 days
Playing off an exhaustion of this counter trend bulls. Also banking on mean reversion to bring price back to lower levels for bulls who are still looking to long.
4)TP @ ema touch + d1 line chart support
My TP level will be based on d1 line chart. To complete a D1 1234, price still needs to overcome this level. I will assume at the moment it is not going to break and hence TP at that area. Also touching the base of the EMAs.
SnP showed a bull trap with a WR2D1B. Current price is pending WR3B. I have already shorted early and looking for quick TP @ 1867 level.
trade outcome +$13 x 3
this is the type of trade that I wish to reproduce. Fast and quick to TP , all done in a matter of few hours. Less time in the market makes me less jittery. It is ok that I could not squeeze out the last $5-7 dollars on the spike, but I shall not be greedy.
Overall this is a good trade.
overall, still waiting for AUD to turn strength, and then showhand trade.
But it is not right now.
WR2B CTT has just happened.
h1 shows an orthodox 1234 2 xh1 WR bull trap. Price barely touched blue box on a spike.
On WR, it happened to be at 5 pm. It was instinctive to enter on this trade.
Resistance was defined by recent h4 boxes high and low.
I will be looking to exit on blue box and last h4 box low.
feels great when trade move fast and settled within 12 hours. It is still considered counter trend movement so I believed I have done the right thing for quick profit taking @ the last week week low and the final position @ blue box.
I am now ready for a potential rebound from AUD bulls and have planted a sell limit for EURAUD.
A strong trendline is defending against the bulls, who has strong reasons for upward movement with a 3 month ihs chart pattern. A long time symmetrical chart pattern is indeed compelling reason for perhaps strong continuation of the 2013 trend.
updated 250414 2114 hrs
Did not managed to get in earlier at a suspected 1234; not the best of pattern but now 13TL is completed and a WR2B has been done.
Have to assume that consolidation is completed and now price is ready for a subsequent downmove.
Note that space will be limited and hence order for this trade will be quick TP @ about 90-100 pips. I will be happy with that.
A trade checklist
Checklist suggested that trade may not be top grade, based on points. Reduce risk n lot size.
Question is would I have averted this loss by choosing to tp and run at this bear trap?
What I have did ok to compensate for this late entry will be reduced lot size , so this was the saving grace of this losing trade.
A small but visible ihs can be seen from line chart. Height of head is roughly same as big neckline level in which I intend to look for distinct price action for a showhand A trade
I am currently long on counter trend towards this neckline. This position was entered in pain on tuesday when AUDCAD trade was faring badly. Making matters worse, nbox was showing a bearish expansion and during 4M AUD was strongly regarded.
price has now closed above the neckline and if there is retracement I will be looking for an
added entry towards the neckline
taken profit with 110 pips