(+100) week26 EURAUD h4 channel bottom with macd divergence done right

D1

Started off with an identification of the trend using zigzag dow theory. Price had completed an inverted head and shoulders

week23 EURAUD D1  6reakout 2 mth high 040615

h4

After several days of no signal for long, finally things began to happen.This was a nice and classic bullflag which I had seen it so many times, again and again. With my strong confidence in the support cluster, I no longer wait for a flush to confirm but will happen the moment i see a bottom. After all , I am only looking for a spurt of 100 pips each. Understanding that price moves in ebbs and flows, each 100 pips always will provide chance for another retracement entry. So in all , I could have traded several times within the story.

week26 EURAUD h4 1234 wr2b 240615

I was willing to add more on retrace, based on the macd divergence i see in the double bottom.

week26 EURAUD h4 wr26 1234 macd divergemce dou6le 6ottom 250615

Outcome 270615

Outcome of this trade has been awesome. This was a good trade as this was a repeated price pattern and my edge continued to work.

week26 EURAUD h1 tp gif 260615

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(+2 Breakeven out) week22 EURAUD short from shooting star , an attempt to be in line with big picture.

D1

Shooting stars and Hammers are price phenomenons which depict notions of trapped traders; that showed initial euphoria, follwoed by true strength and direction that went the opposite way.

Putting this in line with the orignal direction of the trade which I intend to take, I  thus have a trading edge.

week22 EURAUD D1 shooting star flush of 2 days high 250515

h1

On the h1 shows a clearer picture of bearflag. Although within the week to week context  it has been ranging,

I am taking this trade setup as a chance to get into the big picutre of a giant head and shoulders.

week22 EURAUD h1 bearflag 250515

Big picture

This overall direction was recently analyzed on this post:

https://nakedchartist.wordpress.com/2015/04/22/in-progress-week16-euraud-power-plunge-pending/

I still look to get in line with the big direction. Although now it is in the state of flux with price still not confirming it has completed this distribution.

updated 310515

Unfortunately price did not pan out they way it was envisioned to be. Many a times  the reality does not align with the envision, and the importance of trade management is well exemplified in this trade where eventually due to not taking profits, the trade was exited at breakeven eventually. However it was a great exit as subsequently price reversed more than 300 pips.

Another point for discussion would be the validity og the shooting star.

Does it portray a notion of exhaustion?

Was this shooting star caught in a range?

Is it an “inside bar shooting star?”

Did it show signs of flushing at the lower timeframe?

All these are good questions for me to research further on the strength of daily shooting stars and pinbars.

( in progress) week16 EURAUD power plunge pending

w1 

This is a major big pattern in play. There is a huge hns in progress

week15 EURAUD w1 hns 110415

d1

At each of the resistance confluence , price proves the analysis correct with a violent turn.

Going down into h4 provides a  day2day momentum 1234, nested nicely at 2014 low . Breaking it will open floodgates.

week16 EURAUD major impending plunge 220415

h4

this is it. hns within hns within hns. this 1234 has to be respected. 2014 low is nicely manifested as the neckline. A power close below it will pave the way for 1.30.

week16 EURAUD h4 1234 hns 220415

week7 GBPAUD missed trade was due to wrongful EURAUD bias ( -110 x5)

Missed this hell of a good swing at GBPAUD h4T. Reason was I was vested in Euraud shorts at the early part of week.

week7 GBPAUD h1 missed trade with h4t macd divergence flush 130215

My EURAUD mistake.
got it wrong for continuous 2 weeks.

Different issues each time, each the result of both wrongful timing and wrongful direction.

week7 EURAUD h1 my mistakes 130215

Another reason was becoming too cocky with my previous trade bias.

week7 EURAUD w1 hns big target 090215

week7 EURAUD D1 right shoulder within right shoulder 080215

Eventually this h4 hns did not materialize. My plan was to load up on bearish day expansion below the neckline. But it did not happen. Because of my hastiness in entry, I shorted into support.

week7 EURAUD h4 hns forming 090215

At the end of the day, WR n macd divergences with MYlevels are what gives me the winners. Stick to them.

(+225 , +110 , -100 hedging) week3 EURAUD this is the type of trades that I need to be in.

Event of the week and probably for a long time in the fx world will be the SNB shock unpeg. However this gave EURAUD the push that it needed for trend continuation.

Trend identification is not an issue with EURAUD.

It is all about the conviction, and the guts to get it big in my conviction.

D1

Started the week with this bias.

week3 EURAUD D1 wr6d1b 100115

H1

Stalking the week till wednesday and got into this trade, small

week3 EURAUD h1 1234 h4t bearflag 140115

Outcome

Guts and belief. EURAUD is one trade that should never be doubted.

week3 EURAUD h1 +225 A trade 170115

week50 positive examples of trading the “NOW” ( +170, +40 , +25) EURAUD , (+260) GBPAUD , (+$2) WTI

h1

Big pattern completed , multi months resistance cleared. I look to be in the “NOW” by waiting for a 1234.

week49 EURAUD h1 1234 031214

week50 EURAUD h1 tp positive example of trading the now 131214

Outcome
week50 EURAUD h1 tp positive example of trading the now 131214

h1 GBPAUD

I really like this type of trades. It is this type of trades that will proliferate a trader’s account. However what I liked most was the 1234 was nicely-placed at MY levels. Not many of these trades do come by, but when they do, grab it.

week50 GBPAUD h1 best trade ( +260) with MY levels 131214

WTI

WTI winning trade was a good example of following the momentum, and understand that trend can be dynamic and will be good to play the “NOW” in order to see immediate pips.

WTI losing trade what was not done right will be on the counter trend long. There was some basis to go long though. The cut loss could be much better and so would the entry price.

week50 WTI winning and losing trade do not fight the trend 131214

Summary

Winning pips are pips that come effortless. I need them to be effortless as I have accepted that I am impatient. Rather than bending backwards n alter my personality to suit trading, i alter my trading style to accommodate my personality. trading the NOW is what i have to do to be profitable.

Re-review of old trades: meaningful insights into previous paradigm ( EURAUD case study)

3 more weeks before 2014 ends. This post shall be focused on thinking about the way I thought back in 1-2 years ago. I do see the evolution in thoughts and this analysis should be a good archaeological find.

The bullish channel or bear flag dilemma

Since the start of the terraseeds journey, the make or break situation was always presented to me. While it did pose a headache to me, I had, in recent weeks finally come to a good answer: to assume the path of least resistance and current momentum as priority choice.

This is because I want to see immediate pips.
Following the momentum with MY levels, rather than pre-empting turning points, will have much higher probabilities.

EURUAUD case study presents the classic conundrum of bullish channel or bear flag, and in that situation i chose to go by bear flag.

This means in h1 : I am preempting the flow to reverse. I am trying to make life difficult for myself. I am shorting into low, since there was no 13TL at all. I am shorting into MY levels, which I have a lot of respect for.

WHICH IS ALL WRONG! And these are negative concepts which I am currently working to purge it from my system.

April 2013 EURAUD meaningful review of difference between bullish channel n bear flag 061214