Did a good trade although the entry could have been better. Position size wise was not big as followed rules to manage $$ risk.
In this setup the 5 week trend was a strong consideration as week to week it was up.
I looked into the h1 for a lower timeframe bullflag.
The bottom was flattish and did not suggest of a wash n rinse, hence that was a reason for me to reduce my position size.
However , what gave the conviction was that
1) Price bounced thrice form a round number support of 1.9000.
2) This formed a double bottom of sorts with macd divergence.
3) this level also confluenced nice with 2007 52weeks low.
As the overall d2d momentum was good, I entered 1 position on break of bullflag trendline.
a bullish day expansion was registered. I shifted to breakeven and have set the TP to ~1.92.
this was a good entry with good setup. Unfortunately I did not earn eventually as price hit BE and I did not tp earlier on.
GBP Pound crosses could be seeing a strong moves in the near future.
A nicely connected bullflag has not yet broken out , but currently price is at the top, on the verge of breaking out.
Going by personal definition of trend on a week to week (w2w) basis , past 5 weeks have registered higher lows each week. This is advantageous for a swing trader who wishes to earn profits within 1-4 days, since the probability of another upweek is high.
On day to day momentum ( d2d) , tuesday registered a hammer, suggesting that price respected the 52 weeks level. Thereafter a right shoulder was completed, from the line chart version.
That suggested that price is likely to continue from past 5 weeks of trend.
trade outcome +90.
Exited on friday morning after seeing that price was not able to register new highs in the morning. Left pos BE out.
Overall good trade setup, excellment trade management. I may not have gotten the large move correct, but I did well by exiting and managing the risk correctly.
Defining my trend in week to week. The reason is swing trading requires result to be seen within 1-few days. If the trend is too larger, then it does not serve the purpose of winning a trade based on trending situation. For example, there will be of little value if i was to long based on a year to year trend, while week to week it was showing down, and yet expect to take porfit within 1-3 days…
In this chart, since there was already 6 weeks up, I will assume that 7th ( current) week will print a higher low as well.
if I look for a retracement entry intraweek, I should have a very good chance to rejoin this trend.
Hence I am looking to use this 2 d1 pivot as support level to find signs of bullish candle to get long.
will update again.
waited 5 days but the hammer refused to come at the pre-identified support level. I felt good about this abandoned setuped as I demonstrated discipline to insist on the uptrend, but yet I stayed prudent and decided to wait only when there was a hammer to rejoin the trend. Perhaps next week the game will be on.
Shorted this when I saw the familiar Resistance tripartite of 2014 low , channel confluence , together with f6.
There was a WR2B which validated a beartrap. And this reversal pivot was even more meaningfully formed with
a yellow purple expansion combination, which suggests the strength of the resistance.
price plunged straight for monday and now at neckline. Which presents the next decision to take some or leave to ride for more.
Indeed price did a drastic turn at the identified partial tp area. I did well to secure the profits.
After so many years of struggles, finally come to understand the finer points in price movement.
Ultimately, the easiest trads had always been the trending trades , H4T , with entries that seek to rejoin the trend by playing the reversal on lower timeframe.
It is always about conditioning the mind to rejoin these type of trends.
Here is one trade which i had missed.
This is a correlation that I am interested to know more find out.
Currently I see differences between Wheat and Corn.
Looking to short wheat with trend continuation.
However I saw different things for Corn.
although Sl was clearly defined, eventually I could not bear to play this out, as I saw a shorting oppoturnity in wheat.
It has been a year of trading with commodities and I continue to learn new things everyday. This recent contrasting setup for Corn and Wheat made me want to analyse deeper onto the fundamental aspect of commodities as currently I have gained some insights in that commodities might not always be moving together.
Missed this hell of a good swing at GBPAUD h4T. Reason was I was vested in Euraud shorts at the early part of week.
My EURAUD mistake.
got it wrong for continuous 2 weeks.
Different issues each time, each the result of both wrongful timing and wrongful direction.
Another reason was becoming too cocky with my previous trade bias.
Eventually this h4 hns did not materialize. My plan was to load up on bearish day expansion below the neckline. But it did not happen. Because of my hastiness in entry, I shorted into support.
At the end of the day, WR n macd divergences with MYlevels are what gives me the winners. Stick to them.