( did not tp n B.E) week22 GBPCAD with trend bullflag “A Grade” trade

Did a good trade although the entry could have been better. Position size wise was not big as followed rules to manage $$ risk.

H4

In this setup the 5 week trend was a strong consideration as week to week it was up.
I looked into the h1 for a lower timeframe bullflag.
The bottom was flattish and did not suggest of a wash n rinse, hence that was a reason for me to reduce my position size.
However , what gave the conviction was that

1) Price bounced thrice form a round number support of 1.9000.
2) This formed a double bottom of sorts with macd divergence.
3) this level also confluenced nice with 2007 52weeks low.

As the overall d2d momentum was good, I entered 1 position on break of bullflag trendline.

week22 GBPCAD h1 1234 h4t with macd divergence 260515

2705015

a bullish day expansion was registered. I shifted to breakeven and have set the TP to ~1.92.

week22 GBPCAD h1 1234 bullish expansion day 270515

updated 300515

this was a good entry with good setup. Unfortunately I did not earn eventually as price hit BE and I did not tp earlier on.

week22 GBPCAD h1 1234 good entry poor exit BE 300515

( +90, +BE ) WEEK21 GBPSGD H4 INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS COMPLETE, READY FOR UPSIDE MOVEMENT.

GBP Pound crosses could be seeing a strong moves in the near future.

w1

week21 GBPSGD w1 bullflag 13TL 210515

A nicely connected bullflag has not yet broken out , but currently price is at the top, on the verge of breaking out.

h4

week21 GBPSGD h4 1234 H4t 210515

Going by personal definition of trend on a week to week (w2w) basis , past 5 weeks have registered higher lows each week. This is advantageous for a swing trader who wishes to earn profits within 1-4 days, since the probability of another upweek is high.

On day to day momentum ( d2d) , tuesday registered a hammer, suggesting that price respected the 52 weeks level. Thereafter a right shoulder was completed, from the line chart version.

That suggested that price is likely to continue from past 5 weeks of trend.

updated 230515

trade outcome +90.

Exited on friday morning after seeing that price was not able to register new highs in the morning. Left pos BE out.

Overall good trade setup, excellment trade management. I may not have gotten the large move correct, but I did well by exiting and managing the risk correctly.

week21 GBPSGD h4 trading outcome +90 230515

( bias abandoned, trade not triggered) week21 AUDJPY D1 line chart shows pivot support , 6 weeks uptrend.

D1

week21 AUDJPY D1 h4t line chart support 180515

Defining my trend in week to week. The reason is swing trading requires result to be seen within 1-few days. If the trend is too larger, then it does not serve the purpose of winning a trade based on trending situation. For example, there will be of little value if i was to long based on a year to year trend, while week to week it was showing down, and yet expect to take porfit within 1-3 days…

In this chart, since there was already 6 weeks up, I will assume that 7th ( current) week will print a higher low as well.
if I look for a retracement entry intraweek, I should have a very good chance to rejoin this trend.

Hence I am looking to use this 2 d1 pivot as support level to find signs of bullish candle to get long.

will update again.

updated 230515

waited 5 days but the hammer refused to come at the pre-identified support level. I felt good about this abandoned setuped as I demonstrated discipline to insist on the uptrend, but yet I stayed prudent and decided to wait only when there was a hammer to rejoin the trend. Perhaps next week the game will be on.

week22 AUDJPY h4 indecisive 230515

( +167) week19 GBPCAD h4t with wr2b bearflag from Resistance confluence A trade

week19 G6pcad h4t wr26 040515

Shorted this when I saw the familiar  Resistance tripartite of 2014 low , channel confluence , together with f6.
There was a WR2B which validated a beartrap. And this reversal pivot was even more meaningfully formed with

a yellow purple expansion combination, which suggests the strength of the resistance.

h4, D+1

price plunged straight for monday and now at neckline. Which presents the next decision to take some or leave to ride for more.

week19 GBPCAD h4 suspected neckline 050515

outcome 090515

week19 GBPCAD h4 nailed the exit level correctly 090515

Indeed price did a drastic turn at the identified partial tp area. I did well to secure the profits.

week12 EURNZD a missed entry. Going back to the basics.

After so many years of struggles, finally come to understand the finer points in price movement.

Ultimately, the easiest trads had always been the trending trades , H4T , with entries that seek to rejoin the trend by playing the reversal on lower timeframe.

It is always about conditioning the mind to rejoin these type of trends.

Here is one trade which i had missed.

week12 EURNZD h4t totally missed this trend 200315

week8 Divergence between Bearish Wheat ( in progess) and Bullish Corn

This is a correlation that I am interested to know more find out.

Currently I see differences between Wheat and Corn.

Wheat

Looking to short wheat with trend continuation.

week8 wheat h4t bearflag with kicker 190215

D1
week8 wheat d1 candle bearish engulfing 190215

However I saw different things for Corn.

Corn

week8 Corn h4 ihs breaking out 170215

h1

although Sl was clearly defined, eventually I could not bear to play this out, as I saw a shorting oppoturnity in wheat.

week8 Corn h1 bullflag Sl defined 170215

Conclusion

It has been a year of trading with commodities and I continue to learn new things everyday. This recent contrasting setup for Corn and Wheat made me want to analyse deeper onto the fundamental aspect of commodities as currently I have gained some insights in that commodities might not always be moving together.

week7 GBPAUD missed trade was due to wrongful EURAUD bias ( -110 x5)

Missed this hell of a good swing at GBPAUD h4T. Reason was I was vested in Euraud shorts at the early part of week.

week7 GBPAUD h1 missed trade with h4t macd divergence flush 130215

My EURAUD mistake.
got it wrong for continuous 2 weeks.

Different issues each time, each the result of both wrongful timing and wrongful direction.

week7 EURAUD h1 my mistakes 130215

Another reason was becoming too cocky with my previous trade bias.

week7 EURAUD w1 hns big target 090215

week7 EURAUD D1 right shoulder within right shoulder 080215

Eventually this h4 hns did not materialize. My plan was to load up on bearish day expansion below the neckline. But it did not happen. Because of my hastiness in entry, I shorted into support.

week7 EURAUD h4 hns forming 090215

At the end of the day, WR n macd divergences with MYlevels are what gives me the winners. Stick to them.