( trade documentation) week47 S&P D1 mean reversion trade via flying Buddha

This trade has already happened but I just wanted to write to post to document how the use of Flying Buddha , when done right allows user to buy at the lowest. Some imagination and risk has to taken as well.

D1

on 161115 about 2 weeks ago, I saw a trendline on linechart formed. At monday’s open Price was resting on this trendline, a decent indication that it is currently at support.

However what gave the propulsion to buy in was also due to a strong downmove on Friday, which created a strong bearish day, and more importantly, created a phenomenon in which price was temporarily too far away from the moving averages.

As price are reversionary in nature , i.e they tend to gravitate back to the MA. this set up a situation in which price has little down space to move, but rather there was BOTH trendline support n mean reversion propulsion to push price up.
week46 SnP d1 flying buddha support 161115

171115

True enough, price snapped back the next day, breaking the trend of consecutive bearish days.

week46 Snp D1 flying buddha trade completed 171115

Aftermath

Since price snapping back up. it has continued to be bullish. I have closed the trade after the bullish day, expecting it to be countertrend.

So how long a trader wishes to hold in this context will depend on what they are intending to play for.
Do they wish to exit, on the presumption that they have successfully played off on a countertrend move,

or Do they wish to use this chance to rejoin the longer term uptrend?

week47 Snp D1 flying buddha snapping up 291115

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week29 trapped traders signal review : 1 loss , 5 wins , 2 pending

Currently testing and working on proprietary signal alert.
This week a 8 trapped trader signals were given out.

Bullish : EURNZD, GBPAUD , GBPNZD , WTI

Bearish : NZDCHF , NZDJPY, AUDJPY , AUDUSD

Of these, WTI long was eventually stopped out, but this was also a Countertrend trade.

week29 WTI D1 bullish engulfing 150715

Losing outcome

week29 WTI D1 bullish engulfing failure 190715

Winning Alerts

As for the rest, EURNZD , GBPAUD , GBPNZD , NZDCHF , NZDJPY will be considered big wins as the signals allowed positions to be entered immediately after the signal was given, while never touching the determined initial SL. Do note that some were given off at the open of Monday, so this dispels the myth that trades cannot be done on Monday.

EURNZD

week29 EURNZD D1 trapped traders worked out 180715

GBPAUD

week29 GBPAUD D1 bullish engulfing 180715

GBPNZD
week29 GBPNZD D1 trapped traders works 180715

NZDCHF

week29 NZDCHF D1 trapped traders moved 180715

NZDJPY

week29 NZDJPY D1 trapped traders bearish engulfing 170715

Signals still in progress

AUDUSD , AUDJPY are still in progress with not much pip gain yet.

AUDUSD

week29 AUDUSD D1 trapped traders not really moved yet 180715

AUDJPY

posted on AUDJPY in previous post.

week29 AUDJPY D1 trapped traders bearish engulfing 160715

Summary

week29 was fruitful for trapped traders signal. Will await week30 for consistency.

Re-review of old trades: meaningful insights into previous paradigm ( EURAUD case study)

3 more weeks before 2014 ends. This post shall be focused on thinking about the way I thought back in 1-2 years ago. I do see the evolution in thoughts and this analysis should be a good archaeological find.

The bullish channel or bear flag dilemma

Since the start of the terraseeds journey, the make or break situation was always presented to me. While it did pose a headache to me, I had, in recent weeks finally come to a good answer: to assume the path of least resistance and current momentum as priority choice.

This is because I want to see immediate pips.
Following the momentum with MY levels, rather than pre-empting turning points, will have much higher probabilities.

EURUAUD case study presents the classic conundrum of bullish channel or bear flag, and in that situation i chose to go by bear flag.

This means in h1 : I am preempting the flow to reverse. I am trying to make life difficult for myself. I am shorting into low, since there was no 13TL at all. I am shorting into MY levels, which I have a lot of respect for.

WHICH IS ALL WRONG! And these are negative concepts which I am currently working to purge it from my system.

April 2013 EURAUD meaningful review of difference between bullish channel n bear flag 061214

week44 Initial theory on the tripartite view for trading success. GBPNZD – 100 , AUDJPY – 70, CADSGD -50

More evolution of theories as weeks goes by.

In week44, I proceed to evolve from the tandem of market direction + market timing to

to the tripartite component Trend ( big picuture) , momentum( market timing) timing ( redefined as “perceived” high/low) to ensure minimum pip risk.

In review the losing trades, I have thus come to conclusion how in instances of right trend, right momentum but yet I still could get stopped out, and hence missed out on a subsequent huge move.

No.1 ? Trend Right momentum wrong timing

AUDJPY h1

Despite a very nice upward momentum, I still tripped up when I decided to join in the bullish bandwagon without waiting for a retracement towards trusted d1 line chart support. IF, price should drop, then I will get caught in the retracement. In this case, I got stopped out by respecting my SL but also because

1) of my rash entry early on to enter on h1 spike up, which did not materialize

2) I set my SL NOT with respect to d1 line chart SAR

Timing as can be seen, will hence place pirority on my tripartite.

week44 AUDJPY h1 right momentum wrong timing -70 021114

No.2 Right Trend Right momentum wrong timing

GBPNZD -100

The haste and the anxiety to get in, will result in entries with inferior positions. As shown in the chart, the way to go , is to get in on LONG on PERCEIVED LOW , SHORT on PERCEIVED HIGH.

I did not do this in GBPNZD, and hence I had to suffer retracement of unknown magnitude at that point of time.
Had I long , 8-10 hours later, I will be up +100 instead of -100.

Be patient, for the market always revisits the best price.

week44 GBPNZD h1 example of right trend right momentum wrong timing -100 021114

No.3 Right trend , right momentum, right timing

H4T down ,
moementum day to day is down.
Timing used channel macd.

Result is highest probability win.

week41 NZDCAD H4T 081014

week41 NZDCAD H4T 081014

No.4 ? Trend , right momentum, right timing

H4 : trend maybe not clear

Momentum clear: 7-10 days of uptrend with 1-2 days of bullish expansion.

Timing needs to be good with trusted d1 SAR

Still considered high probability

week44 EURJPY h1 did not trade but saw the exact entry with galvanized understanding of d1 line chart 311014

Summary

I am evolving in terms of my thoughts. I am now fine tuning trend,momentum,timing not in terms of hierarchical importance, but I will say they in sum determine how i should set out to structure a trade with superior RRR , high accuracy , best possible duration to my best.

I am also paying more respect towards structuring effective SLs. Contain risk, with open upside.

That however, I must say , with right timing and right momentum most of the time, still offer immediate movemment n respectable pips of 50-110.
Trend however, will be akin to overlord which determines the amount of meat that can be captured.

Review of week 42: Market turning & and a reminder to play momentum together with trend

EURGBP – 50
EURSEK : +50

NZDCAD : -80

CHFJPY: +90

NZDCAD is a trade which helped me to think about if momentum is still aligned with the trend or not.

Pre-trade setup

I got the direction correct and prepping to play off the wrmb wtt was correct, as I could not see any magical lines.

week42 NZDCAD h4 wr2b line chart WTT 141014

Trade outcome

On hindsight, the jagged up and down days resulted in a loss of momentum, or to be mroe accurate, the momentum was not with the bears anymore but the bulls. Observation of a good test , will then be the life-saver that can prevent this trade from turning into a loss.

A good test and a gd close below the 2 h4 pivot should then be what I have to wait for.

week42 NZDCAD trade outcome mistake review 181014

What then is an example of ” with trend , with momentum”?

CHFJPY h4

h4 boxes down , and h1 boxes were down also. In successive down weeks boxes were down. hence when one of the h1 box seemed to be up during the day, I took that as a intraday bulltrap which aligned with overall down trend and momentum.

week42 CHFJPY h1 1234 within channel 151014

trade outcome

Managed to TP this and hence shall be using this as a good example of what I need to continue to do in order to be successful and profitable. Continue to sieve out the simple markets, and trade them.

week42 chfjpy trad outcome +90 181014

( BE x 2 , – 150 x 2 , +70 x 2) week41 waterloo week I: trade review of EURUSD short trades

this week was a bad week in the early week as 3 consecutive winning weeks had let to complacency again and destroyed whatever consistency that was building up.

I will do my trade reviews of several USD related pairs and proceed to discuss if following abandoning limit triggers and stick to strict channel setups may be better for me.

Heart of the problem first lies in being able to identify key SAR or not.

Looking back at week41. Disaster started right from Monday morning when I continued to have the Rambo mentality to keep buying on USD.

I believe having this mindset is good but I also need to be prudent to know that it is always good to trade from retracements. In this aspect, I seemed to have used it well on EURUSD for the past 10+ weeks, and only suffered a waterloo on week 41.

week41 EURUSD h4t 111014

every week i see higher low but this week things did not turn out as expect from the past 5 to 6 weeks.

Suffered losses as shown:

Early week entries were based on the assumption that week to week will be lower and turn around f5 or f6. Things did not work as planned.
Some positions cut losses at higher price where it soon turned.
Made to look like a fool with the classic pump and dump.

On analysis. Was the macd divergene a good one for the first channel?
Was there a channel at all?
Should i have followed the channel?

week41 EURUSD trade outcome 111014

2nd trade on short at friday was much better when the channel shown was one which touched the R of 52weeks level and on closer scrutincy price did not close above the 52 weeks level at all! That was a sign that perhaps the game was still on.

EURUSD h1 1234 macd divergence

week41 EURUSD h1 1234 macd divergence 101014

tracking with tradingview

https://www.tradingview.com/v/spN23cBC/

The debate:

Hence will waiting for channel ONLY to trade yield better results??
Will it protect me from future potential losses?

I believe h1 channel play is the way to go for me. Patience, and hitting big on a consistent good channel setup maybe much better than hitting random entries.

But the complexities lie in ascertaining when the channel has ended.
I am currently in the process of batching my positions when nearing the end of the channel. It is not easy and as of now I cant put a definite yes/no type of rule into it.

The part on determining SL is still being worked on. It is hard to concertize how i want to place my SL as every trade setup is similar yet they are different as well. Sometimes putting a hard stop is good, but sometimes it is dumb as SL may get killed by volatility instead.

edited 251214

After reading through this post again,the f6 entry which I made was untested against any key levels.
With the advent of MY Levels, I should not be committing this type of mistakes in 2015.

week38 review : Consistency coming back with tightening of h1 channel setup

This week was a much consistent week with h1 channel setup well used in most occasions

EURSGD h1 h4t 1234 macd : in progress

CADJPY h1 H4T 1234 Macd retest : +90 , +200

NZDCAD h1 H4T 1234 Macd retest : +120

EURGBP h1 fractals big picture play 1234 macd : + 30 , +&0 , +130 , +130

USDPLN h1 H4T 1234 Macd : in progress

CAC40 h1 H4T 1234 macd : in progress

NZDJPY Wr6B cut -40

Trades I missed:

EURUSD h1 H4t 1234 Macd

AUDJPY h1 WR2B CTT macd

Progress report for Q3 2014

Fine tuning A trade

1. I feel I am close to 90% completion of finetuning my A trade criteria setup. One criteria that is important to seeing quick pips itm will be the h1 setup.

I have discovered the importance of “trading in only 1 timeframe”. I have hence chosen h1 as my timeframe, but yet the direction of big picture is equally important if I “wish to trade like a trader, hold like an investor.”

2.for big picture , I will have to re rank H4T as the best big picture to get in line with h1 setup. 2nd will be WRMB.

3.But most importantly, I have also come to see the importance of d1 line chart, using them to determine whether should I go for continuation or wash n rinse.

mean reversion/ spot the tops n bottoms

This project is still in progress after several botched trades. I believe I have got the several key ingredients nailed down, but it is how i mix them up that makes the difference.

Some concepts that I am gradually tying to introduce and apply on a robust format:

LOBSOW
flying Buddha
Mean reversion