week42 CADSGD D1 Long term weakness: What are the significances?

w1

This yearly chart exhibits a clear downtrend , based on year to year lower highs and lower lows being made.
It can be safely said that unless there is a sharp reversal or strong fundamental changes, price is likely to follow the path of least resistance. The Canadian dollar is thus poised to weaken further , while the Sing dollar will continue to appreciate. I

D1

based on the recent flush of 3 months high, a bearflag will be completed soon. price seems ready to continue the zig-zag down move for making new lows in the very near future.

What are some of the possible significance for a weakened CAD and an increasingly strong Sing dollar?

1. Canadians working in Singapore, may find some advantage in earning SGD and remitting them back to their country.

2. Singaporeans may have a larger purchasing power if Canada happens to be their holiday destination.

3. Lank banking investment scheme based on Canadian Lands, might take a hit due to weaker foreign exchange, even if the investment would be an eventual success. In just a span of a year from 2014 to 2015 , exchange rates has dropped from 1.16 to 1.06 , almost equivalent to a 10% drop! Hence even if the investment was to be profitable, earnings would have been slashed by 10%.
http://www.mas.gov.sg/moneysense/understanding-financial-products/investments/consumer-alerts/land-banking-look-before-you-leap.aspx

Hence I strongly advise readers to weigh their options carefully before committing to any Canadian investments.

4.Cheap Canadian islands for sale!

http://www.privateislandsonline.com/islands/hemlow-island

week23 Straits Times Index multi year high flushed. Bulltrap, looking dangerous

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The chart has just completed a bulltrap with a flush of multi year high. On a retest of ~389 , that may be a very good level to short down the market.

week23 The Singapore property price Index : Using Dow Theory to understand property price movement.

This is a very primitive way of price projection.

My beliefs are very rudimentary:

The SIngapore property is a tightly regulated and controlled market, with stable rise over the markets, and hence not likely to see the property bubble being burst. This type of stability is brought by an articifical inducement of gradual rise in price, and then a retracement, before the next wave up.

It bears striking resemblance to the dow theory in which price rises predictably via a zig zag up movement.

The Dow theory

this type of price movement imo, is best for the stability of the country. Singaporeans would not feel squeezed as they continue to feel their assets are growing.

Singapore Housing PPI

bears resemblance in this aspect. The Index becomes predictable, something which everyone wants.

Predictability, that is what sound investor wants. Kudos to the government in this aspect by controlling the bulls, giving the uptrend time to expand, retrace, before expanding. This ebb and flow is essential for market to function nornmal.

Do also note that that the rising channel has a very gentle slope, which may bode well as too sleep and uptrend is not good as well.

With a simple trendline drawn, I project the support confluence to be ~2017. Hopefully it gives me some more time to accumulate my cash before purchasing my first property. It could not have come at a better timing.

Conclusion

I am appreciative that there is strict regulation of the local property market. Becuase when market moves up too fast, it will

come down hard as well. The last thing we want is something like a parabolic descent. which can cause irreversible damage:

STI month chart: the quick up in 2007 before the even quicker   collapse

week20 SGX Osim at bullflag bottom. Possibility of buyback bounce with technical charting?

I do not trade this counter. But my friend’s keen and vested interested in osim has made me start to monitor as well. I will go through the technical aspects first, before moving on to fundamental/sentiment aspects, something is still new and subjective to me.

w1

On the week chart, price reaches a classic resistance turn support of multi 52 weeks level.

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On the day chart however price is currently at the bottom of a bullflag. if price can close above 1.70, it will also be flushing a 2 months low, forming a beartrap. This suggests support and validates the 52weeks level  as seen in the first chart.

If this bottom is indeed true, then price can look for $2~ level.

Buyback:

http://osim.listedcompany.com/newsroom.html/year/-1

This is something new to me. My friend has made the observation that whenever there is a buyback there will be likely a bounce in price. However as a chartist, I seek the possibility if I can align this type of information with technical charts.

In this case if the buyback does really have effects on the price, it has also happened near the bottom of the bullflag as seen in the day chart.  Hence I hope to shed more light in the future, combining both aspects to make a better trade decision.

week20 STI finds support day hammer shown, ready for trend resumption.

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After price retraced hard  for past 2 weeks, price found support late last week, first with a day hammer from a previous resistance turned support level.

This came from a classic zig-zag uptrend.

Price registered a bullish day close last Friday.

On week20 an intraday retracement should provide good discount for long entries.