( +30, +50 , +120) week45 USDZAR a satisfying trade, and the way to trade

h1

week45 USDZAR trade outcome with superior RRR n right trend analysis 081114

Did this trade and was very satisfied with the RRR.
in recent months, due to the advent n concretiziing of D1 line chart as powerful SAR,

I have now moved on to establishing superior RRR so that each trade yields far more than what is risked, and this helps to covered over losing trades.

In this trade, I practiced reasonably good RRR of varying degrees: 1:2 , 1:4 and hypothetical RRR of 1:10 if the position had been held on.

This is the way to go. The crux lies in understanding trend , momentum and timing. In this trade, I had demonstrated my understanding of this holy tripartite with a small SL, but yet a larger RRR due to understanding of trend.

I look forward to more trades like these.

I believe firming up RRR will be my next level to move towards to.

week44 Initial theory on the tripartite view for trading success. GBPNZD – 100 , AUDJPY – 70, CADSGD -50

More evolution of theories as weeks goes by.

In week44, I proceed to evolve from the tandem of market direction + market timing to

to the tripartite component Trend ( big picuture) , momentum( market timing) timing ( redefined as “perceived” high/low) to ensure minimum pip risk.

In review the losing trades, I have thus come to conclusion how in instances of right trend, right momentum but yet I still could get stopped out, and hence missed out on a subsequent huge move.

No.1 ? Trend Right momentum wrong timing

AUDJPY h1

Despite a very nice upward momentum, I still tripped up when I decided to join in the bullish bandwagon without waiting for a retracement towards trusted d1 line chart support. IF, price should drop, then I will get caught in the retracement. In this case, I got stopped out by respecting my SL but also because

1) of my rash entry early on to enter on h1 spike up, which did not materialize

2) I set my SL NOT with respect to d1 line chart SAR

Timing as can be seen, will hence place pirority on my tripartite.

week44 AUDJPY h1 right momentum wrong timing -70 021114

No.2 Right Trend Right momentum wrong timing

GBPNZD -100

The haste and the anxiety to get in, will result in entries with inferior positions. As shown in the chart, the way to go , is to get in on LONG on PERCEIVED LOW , SHORT on PERCEIVED HIGH.

I did not do this in GBPNZD, and hence I had to suffer retracement of unknown magnitude at that point of time.
Had I long , 8-10 hours later, I will be up +100 instead of -100.

Be patient, for the market always revisits the best price.

week44 GBPNZD h1 example of right trend right momentum wrong timing -100 021114

No.3 Right trend , right momentum, right timing

H4T down ,
moementum day to day is down.
Timing used channel macd.

Result is highest probability win.

week41 NZDCAD H4T 081014

week41 NZDCAD H4T 081014

No.4 ? Trend , right momentum, right timing

H4 : trend maybe not clear

Momentum clear: 7-10 days of uptrend with 1-2 days of bullish expansion.

Timing needs to be good with trusted d1 SAR

Still considered high probability

week44 EURJPY h1 did not trade but saw the exact entry with galvanized understanding of d1 line chart 311014

Summary

I am evolving in terms of my thoughts. I am now fine tuning trend,momentum,timing not in terms of hierarchical importance, but I will say they in sum determine how i should set out to structure a trade with superior RRR , high accuracy , best possible duration to my best.

I am also paying more respect towards structuring effective SLs. Contain risk, with open upside.

That however, I must say , with right timing and right momentum most of the time, still offer immediate movemment n respectable pips of 50-110.
Trend however, will be akin to overlord which determines the amount of meat that can be captured.

week44 theorising the “NOW”, and the perception of ” high” and “low” EURJPY case study

Buy Low Sell High is a straightforward concept in trading that must be adopted if we wish to be victorious. If all trades can adhere to that chances of winning will be guaranteed.

The main issue lies in what is to be defined as ” high” and “low”?

Also, if I wish to see immediate profits, or if I do not wish to see paper drawdown before winning, then I need to much better timing to get in at a price which I am satisfied with.

I believe with improved understanding and application of these 2 aspects, I will finally be able to complete the missing jigsaw of my trading learning journey.

EURJPY

In this chart , I seek to acheive clarity of the “NOW”. If i want to get the next 50-70 pips , where does it come from ?

If i want to avoid a paper drawdown, where will be the best place for entry?

To answer this question, I need to have a guage , or a fuzzy estimation of what is high or low for price.

With trend with momentum

this combination is best seen on the left side when h4 boxes are aligned with h1 box. Any retracement within h1 box will be best suit to rejoin dominant trend and will see immediate profits.

With trend against momentum

I define momentum as h1 boxes. It is easy to win when both h1 n h4 are aligned. The problem comes when WRMB becomes subconscious such that I start to see wrmb possibility when there are any flat boxes.
On h1 , boxes are up, so any short will be against momentum.

With this, I will now rate momentum as > trend, as it is momentum that gives me the immediate profits, but it is trend that allows me to ride the trade.

With this, I rather look at momentum in terms of boxes for momentum stability.

looking and drawing fib with sar and keep looking to turn against the momentum often leads me to losing and that is what i want to abolish in 2015.

week44 EURJPY h1 where is the now and what is high or low 311014

Perception of high and low

If i can combine this well i can then better manage my EP n TP levels, and doing well on these aspect will allow me to escape even when i have crappy direction bias.

It will be much based on testing of levels,
Discipline to LOBSOW
Constant respect n patience for key levels and
finally a component still under research: the macd divergence.

week38 review : Consistency coming back with tightening of h1 channel setup

This week was a much consistent week with h1 channel setup well used in most occasions

EURSGD h1 h4t 1234 macd : in progress

CADJPY h1 H4T 1234 Macd retest : +90 , +200

NZDCAD h1 H4T 1234 Macd retest : +120

EURGBP h1 fractals big picture play 1234 macd : + 30 , +&0 , +130 , +130

USDPLN h1 H4T 1234 Macd : in progress

CAC40 h1 H4T 1234 macd : in progress

NZDJPY Wr6B cut -40

Trades I missed:

EURUSD h1 H4t 1234 Macd

AUDJPY h1 WR2B CTT macd

Progress report for Q3 2014

Fine tuning A trade

1. I feel I am close to 90% completion of finetuning my A trade criteria setup. One criteria that is important to seeing quick pips itm will be the h1 setup.

I have discovered the importance of “trading in only 1 timeframe”. I have hence chosen h1 as my timeframe, but yet the direction of big picture is equally important if I “wish to trade like a trader, hold like an investor.”

2.for big picture , I will have to re rank H4T as the best big picture to get in line with h1 setup. 2nd will be WRMB.

3.But most importantly, I have also come to see the importance of d1 line chart, using them to determine whether should I go for continuation or wash n rinse.

mean reversion/ spot the tops n bottoms

This project is still in progress after several botched trades. I believe I have got the several key ingredients nailed down, but it is how i mix them up that makes the difference.

Some concepts that I am gradually tying to introduce and apply on a robust format:

LOBSOW
flying Buddha
Mean reversion

week33 GBPSGD documentation of mean reversion setup ( how macd divergence saved me from wrong bias pre-carney)

D1

d1 shows several line chart support.
At the start of the day, it should also be showing a possible opportunity for mean reversion, for price to snap back since in Asian session price first plunged towards support.

week33 GBPSGD d1 mean reversion and line chart support 120814

h1

On h1, triggerpoint MCAD divergence suggests a possible upmove. But shld buy limit be used with flying buddha, it will allow an even earlier entry to long at low, and with confidence.

Hence by setting a buy limit , i am infact doing a long on black, which is in accordance with the philosophy of buy low sell high.

Should price really complete this double bottom/ batman chart pattern, then I can look to build later positions or choose to ride comfortably. I may also choose to TP; the options are open , but most important I am risk free by then, whereas, 1-2 years ago i would have just started to look for an entry.

Downside is I will have to find a level to define my hard SL.
week33 GBPSGD h1 LOBSOW mean reversion 120814

( 1 pos) week33 AUDSGD h1 potential mean reversion play ( not the best LOBSOW execution after Wr4B)

D1

I see d1 line chart support , and a possible day where a mean reversion hammer may be formed.
I see that price plunged first in the morning , and hence there might be a chance to get this in low.

week33 AUDSGD D1 mean reversion long on black 120814

h1

Some of the confluence that I hv noticed will be:

h1 macd divergence, near btm of ed channel, d1 line chart support. If this support is established, I may also play out a Wr2B to go long.

week33 AUDSGD h1 mean reversion confluence 120814

( quick tp of +60) week32 DAX30 mean reversion trade

Early part of day , JPY crosses were plunging.

Nikkei was down by a lot.

By afternoon, indices opened with a gap down.
After I woke up from nap, I check the flying buddha and found a possible trade for mean reversion on Dax.

D1

From historical charts price is reaching d1 line chart support as well.
When price is too far away from the EMA , it has tendency to move back to rejoin it. Say for bearish situation, should the day start with bearish down move, by later session it will hv reached a key support n possibly overextended. A long from there will see a very quick move and hence I look to capitalize on this mean reversion movement. Done correctly, the result on occasion will a be daily hammer print which may herald the start of a new uptrend.

week32 DAX30 D1 mean reversion 080814

h1

I also looking for intraday macd divergence to signify a possibly of momentum change to confluence in mean reversion.
When put together with price reaching a very strong support, this confluence add strength to a quick bounce and hence a fade back to the mean.

week32 DAX30 h1 mean reversion trade 080814

Weakness

One weakness of this will be not able to find a solid place to place my SL. Playing this mean reversion trade is trying to catch a falling knife. Done wrong and it can be messy. Done right and quick profits can be seen.