week22 EURJPY Head and Shoulders forming, ready to rejoin downtrend.

D1

Price reached a cluster of 52weeks resistance. A bulltrap has been observed.
week22 EURJPY D1 line chart 230515

h4

Last friday, there was a bearish close below multi 52 weeks level. The head and shoulders , with macd divergence can be seen in a clearer perspective on the h4. There was a right shoulder in the form of a bear flag, which was completed from the bearish day expansion. This smashed the 52weeks support.
On week22, will be looking for an intraweek retracement to test these levels and then go short.

week22 EURJPY h4 hns WR2B hns macd divergence 230515

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( +167) week19 GBPCAD h4t with wr2b bearflag from Resistance confluence A trade

week19 G6pcad h4t wr26 040515

Shorted this when I saw the familiar  Resistance tripartite of 2014 low , channel confluence , together with f6.
There was a WR2B which validated a beartrap. And this reversal pivot was even more meaningfully formed with

a yellow purple expansion combination, which suggests the strength of the resistance.

h4, D+1

price plunged straight for monday and now at neckline. Which presents the next decision to take some or leave to ride for more.

week19 GBPCAD h4 suspected neckline 050515

outcome 090515

week19 GBPCAD h4 nailed the exit level correctly 090515

Indeed price did a drastic turn at the identified partial tp area. I did well to secure the profits.

week12 Newcrest Mining, on a downhill slide with huge bearflag

Met up with old army friends over the weekend and the topic of stocks came up. My friend shared that he was owning Newcrest Mining , #ASX and therefore I was curious about all stocks.

Monthly

Looking at the 52weeks levels, I am taking that the current downfall might be good if it falls below 2014 Low , causing whatever is above to be a bulltrap.

week12 newcrest mining 52w levels 140315

Weekly

on first glance it looked like a small accumulation pattern. However, to be more in aligned with dow theory of LH LL, I will seeing it as a bear flag.

week12 Newcrest mining w1 bearflag 140315

week12 newcrest mining  d1 Wr2B Dt alrdy completed 140315

( 1st pos +120 , 2 pos in progress) week11 NZDJPY big A trade with classic Double Top neckline retrace

Had been waiting for this trade for a long time with big picture planning.

D1

week11 nzdjpy d1 dt neckline retest 030915

this is classic neckline retest of a Double Top. If price should print a right shoulder, then it will be the highest probability retest via a hns.

h4

The bearish engulfing day was significant because it happened near the confluence of the neckline as well as a f6. A topping pattern here will be extremely high probability.

week11 NZDJPY h4 bearish engulfing 030915

(+190) week10 GBPCAD channel break wr4b. One countertrend trade which was done right

h4

This was a demo trade as previously I was still hanging on to CADJPY short and hard to change my mind to get into a live short position.

But I was still happy that I shorted this knowing that it looked like only going down.

Channel broken, with a WR4b. This channel was very symmetrical and nice. And previous day close was a decent close although a bearish day close expansion would have gave me high conviction to go short.

I was using a slightly revised charting format and from line chart version it seemed that price found support turned resistance.

week10 GBPCAD h4 wr4b channel broken 040315

Trade outcome

Post CAD news, price plunged straight to neckline. I suspect that a right shoulder might be formed, so I have set TP at neckline area to exit trade. This trade is about understanding the construction of consolidation for flagpole, and trading the wave as countertrend leg.

I feel that I am always on form and mostly right in direction when I follow my setups and trade on edge.
My worst enemy is when I jumped from random levels which sets me back when price retraces back and leaves those position stuck in the middle of no man’s land. If I can restrain myself, I can always trade from the most tactical level and hence feel comfortable.

I have only myself left to beat.

week10 gbpcad h4 neckline reached 050315

week8 Divergence between Bearish Wheat ( in progess) and Bullish Corn

This is a correlation that I am interested to know more find out.

Currently I see differences between Wheat and Corn.

Wheat

Looking to short wheat with trend continuation.

week8 wheat h4t bearflag with kicker 190215

D1
week8 wheat d1 candle bearish engulfing 190215

However I saw different things for Corn.

Corn

week8 Corn h4 ihs breaking out 170215

h1

although Sl was clearly defined, eventually I could not bear to play this out, as I saw a shorting oppoturnity in wheat.

week8 Corn h1 bullflag Sl defined 170215

Conclusion

It has been a year of trading with commodities and I continue to learn new things everyday. This recent contrasting setup for Corn and Wheat made me want to analyse deeper onto the fundamental aspect of commodities as currently I have gained some insights in that commodities might not always be moving together.