Started off with an identification of the trend using zigzag dow theory. Price had completed an inverted head and shoulders
After several days of no signal for long, finally things began to happen.This was a nice and classic bullflag which I had seen it so many times, again and again. With my strong confidence in the support cluster, I no longer wait for a flush to confirm but will happen the moment i see a bottom. After all , I am only looking for a spurt of 100 pips each. Understanding that price moves in ebbs and flows, each 100 pips always will provide chance for another retracement entry. So in all , I could have traded several times within the story.
I was willing to add more on retrace, based on the macd divergence i see in the double bottom.
Outcome of this trade has been awesome. This was a good trade as this was a repeated price pattern and my edge continued to work.
in week23 , I attempted to short after price printed a shooting star from a channel top.
I was stopped out.
This chart shows a concurrent chart of the stopped out trade. The 1st shooting star failed . On friday, after being flushed, a 2nd shooting star was formed. This time with a better story. I look to short again from a sell limit, with a larger position this time.
Form the day chart , price reacted nicely from the channel top. It can be seen as a large bear flag in progress, although not yet completed. The bearish day close also flushed two months high. Strength was added to this resistance confluence as there were several 52weeks level that were flushed as well, suggesting a huge bulltrap.
Looking at the day to day momentum, there was about 10 days of zig-zag down, with several days of bearish day expansion. As last friday saw a bearish day close below 2 weeks low/ 3 days low , I will be looking for a retracement entry in week22 for an entry.
Ideally, there should be some form of level being tested before entering, near ~ 1.4200
to be updated.
Month to month, Silver is still downtrend. There is no signs of bullish month expansion yet.
From the chart, there was a bearish day expansion that flushed the months high. That was the decisive close that caused the swich to bear camp. Noticed how price tend to respect the Equidistant channel top? This is a recurrent price pattern playing out from time to time.
Zoomed into h1 to monitor for test of this 2 mth level as resistance. A shooting star day close will be a very good trigger to short this chart.
On friday, price did not test the level of 17.40 as I would have best hoped to be. Of course, price is never obliged to come to the level which we have best tactical advantage. More often than not, Entry Point as always about improvisation for me. What was more important was the adjustment of position size to contain the risk. I believe for this setup to be wrong price needs to negate this bearish day expansion, so a logical SL has to be placed there.
Took profit for this trade. Price went to where I wanted. Although the RRR was not fantastic at 1:1 , this trade eventually closed at a profit.
GBP Pound crosses could be seeing a strong moves in the near future.
A nicely connected bullflag has not yet broken out , but currently price is at the top, on the verge of breaking out.
Going by personal definition of trend on a week to week (w2w) basis , past 5 weeks have registered higher lows each week. This is advantageous for a swing trader who wishes to earn profits within 1-4 days, since the probability of another upweek is high.
On day to day momentum ( d2d) , tuesday registered a hammer, suggesting that price respected the 52 weeks level. Thereafter a right shoulder was completed, from the line chart version.
That suggested that price is likely to continue from past 5 weeks of trend.
trade outcome +90.
Exited on friday morning after seeing that price was not able to register new highs in the morning. Left pos BE out.
Overall good trade setup, excellment trade management. I may not have gotten the large move correct, but I did well by exiting and managing the risk correctly.
Since reaching 1.400, price did a strong retracement. It is possible that price has now reached the end of the retracement leg, ready to rejoin the longer term uptrend.
D1 chart no.1
Apologies for the messy chart with a cluster of lines. However all these 52weeks level when placed together conveyed a story.
1- 1.400 was the top due to the cluster of 52 weeks level.
2- Price currently finds a support zone, also due to the cluster of 52weeks level + fib 50% retracement.
In particular 2014 High, provides more eivdence that price is ready to bounce from there.
D1 chart no.2
Zooming in, a double bottom seems to have formed, suggesting that this 52 weeks level has been tested twice.
With macd divergence, there is added steel to suggest that price has bottomed out.
Looking at the ed channel, price has also already broken out, with friday’s hammer showing strong respect from 2014 high.
It is thus compelling to believe that this chart is bottoming out. Going into h1, a bullflag of sorts can be seen and entry can be immediate when market opens next week.
I do acknowledge that trading with a small 1234 bullflag is akin to “demanding” that price has to break out of the 3 weeks range. This is an action that may require a larger stop loss in order to prove the setup correct.
However the price action towards the 52weeks level is compelling.
This is the type of good trades that i want to repeat again and again. TP was done at the identified pivot points.
Shorted this when I saw the familiar Resistance tripartite of 2014 low , channel confluence , together with f6.
There was a WR2B which validated a beartrap. And this reversal pivot was even more meaningfully formed with
a yellow purple expansion combination, which suggests the strength of the resistance.
price plunged straight for monday and now at neckline. Which presents the next decision to take some or leave to ride for more.
Indeed price did a drastic turn at the identified partial tp area. I did well to secure the profits.